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By a simple twist of fate, within hours of the Oxford release, the International Energy Agency predicted “a world of increasing [oil] market tightness beyond 2010” and a serious “supply crunch” by 2012.
The agency attributed this forecast to a 4.5% expected global economic growth rate over the next five years and an Asian and Middle Eastern market that will “create oil demand growth three times faster that that of OECD countries.”
The IEA went on to estimate that OPEC’s current surplus buffer of 3 million barrels a day will be cut in half by 2012, thanks largely to cost overruns, lack of expansion, project delays and generally shoddy leadership.
Brent crude rose to $76.34 in trading yesterday -- two bucks short of its all-time high. Light sweet crude continued its climb to $73.