Sunday, July 10, 2011

Tremendously Nicely Said....................

That’s Warren Buffett, not Jimmy Buffett.
I normally agree with very little that Buffett says re: public policy, but I think he may be on to something here. Note I wasn’t able to find any other sources for this, but let’s assume for a moment that it’s legit.
“I could end the deficit in 5 minutes. You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP all sitting members of congress are ineligible for reelection.” — Warren Buffett
We can tweak the numbers here and there, maybe add a clause about not raising taxes, and we may have a winner of an idea.

US Needs To Generate 254,000 Jobs A Month For 65 Months To Get To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term

Every time we update the projection chart of how many jobs have to be created by the end of Obama's now improbable second term, the number goes up.  First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, now it is 254,000: it seems to increase by 5,000 each month. As a reminder this chart looks for the breakeven number that has be attained to restore (not surpass) the jobs that the US economy had back in December 2007 as the Depression started, when accounting for the natural increase of 90,000 people/month in the labor force. Needless to say, there is no way in hell the US economy can create a quarter million jobs per month from now for the next 65 months, as long as the president continues to pander to Wall Street's "wealth creation" via asset returns instead of directing capital into actual economically viable projects that focus on wealth creation through labor.

John Boehner Statement On Practically Agreeing To A Debt Ceiling Hike

Statement by Speaker Boehner on Debt Limit Discussions

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) released the following statement today regarding ongoing debt limit discussions with the White House:

"Despite good-faith efforts to find common ground, the White House will not pursue a bigger debt reduction agreement without tax hikes. I believe the best approach may be to focus on producing a smaller measure, based on the cuts identified in the Biden-led negotiations, that still meets our call for spending reforms and cuts greater than the amount of any debt limit increase."
Sound Of Cannons translation: in two weeks we get news of no tax hikes, and no deficit reduction, which will be spun by the great diversionary media machine as the great compromise, and, of course, leading to a $2.5 trillion debt ceiling hike. Win, win for everyone. Except America's people of course, but who gives a rat's ass about them: certainly not their "elected" muppets, all of which are for sale to the highest Wall Street bidder.

US Taxpayers Just Paid $780 Million To Fund The Latest Greece Bailout Tranche

[For some perspective, do you remember the uproar the $1.5 billion 1979 Chrysler bailout caused? And that was a loan, not a gift.]
The IMF is delighted to announce that it just approved a €3.2 billion disbursement of cash for Greece, its fifth, as part of the €12 billion in money that Greece needs in order to continue operating in the months f July and August. And just for what purpose will this money be used, one may ask? Well, as explained a few weeks ago, in Greek Math: €12 Billion In, €18.2 Billion Out the entire amount will be promptly recycled by global financial institutions in the form of debt maturities and interest payments, which amount to €18.2 billion in the months of July and August. Simply said ECB, EU and IMF money in, money owed to bankers out. The kicker: 17.09% of the money coming from the IMF, comes from, that's right dear US taxpayer, you (and since 21% of the quota contributions allocated to the IMF are deemed "non-usable", the actual number funded by the US is likely much higher). But this plot has a bonus kicker: as we reported on Wednesday, the actual Greek debt is no longer owed by European banks to the extent it had been previously expected: a development that threatens to scuttle the entire second Greek bailout plan as currently proposed. So as the banks have been selling Greek debt, who has been buying? Mostly hedge funds, such as everyone's favorite John Paulson. So to recap: US taxpayers have just paid out about $780 million of the $4.6 billion in order to fund interest owed to... hedge funds.
The WSJ provides a pretty chart explaining who is responsible for what:
[IMFGREECE]
And more:
Counting all IMF funding sources, the 15 euro-zone nations would be responsible for a substantially larger stake in the institution's Greek bailout than the U.S. European contributions to the IMF loan, of course, will in turn be dwarfed by euro-zone countries' far larger exposure through the European bailout.

To make its loan, the IMF will borrow from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the other central banks it taps and pay them interest of about 0.25% on the money; the IMF will then charge Greece about 3% on the loan.

Will the money be wasted? That depends on whether the Greek electorate swallows the cuts in salary and pensions required by the IMF and the country's European partners and whether a new economic strategy boosts Greece's competitive position.

The IMF is always at the top of any list to be repaid because its blessing is crucial for any country to be able to borrow internationally. If there were to be any losses on Greek loans, IMF policy is to absorb them rather than passing them on to members.
So that's the truth. And here is the party line, from Reuters:
In announcing the payment, part of a 110 billion euro IMF-European Union bailout package crafted for Greece last year, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde pointed to progress being made by debt-laden Greece, though noting that more work remains.

"The program is delivering important results: the fiscal deficit is being reduced, the economy is rebalancing, and competitiveness is gradually improving," Lagarde said in a statement.

"However, with many important structural reforms still to be implemented, significant policy challenges remain. A durable fiscal adjustment is needed, lest the deficit get entrenched at an unsustainably high level, and productivity-enhancing reforms should be accelerated, lest growth fail to recover," she said.

The IMF has warned that the crisis in Greece could reach countries like the United States through money market funds, especially if the contagion spreads to European banks heavily exposed to Greek debt.

The global lender scheduled its meeting to consider the fifth loan disbursement for Greece after euro zone leaders agreed on Saturday to release their portion of the 12 billion euros due to be paid to Athens from the initial bailout.

Lagarde said Greek authorities had made progress in the fiscal area by identifying measures required to reduce the general government deficit to less than 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2014.

She also lauded the government's privatization strategy and noted that while the plan to sell 50 billion euros of state assets by 2015 is "very ambitious, the establishment of an independent privatization agency should help realize transparent and timely implementation."

Still, more work needs to be done, Lagarde said.

"To strengthen Greece's competitiveness, structural reform implementation needs to be accelerated. This will help achieve synergies, such as between privatization and reducing administrative barriers to investment. The reform agenda should be expanded to address Greece's high labor tax wedge and inefficient judicial system," Lagarde added.
Incidentally, while not a minute was spared to sequester and prosecute DSK, today, for the second time, the French Republican Court of "Justice" decided to once again delay its probe into her alleged money laundering affair with Bernard Tapie.
Hedge funds around the world salute the decision, which will simply allow more taxpayer money to be reallocated into their various Cayman Island petty cash accounts.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Sacrificing Privacy for No Reason

Wiretaps and government surveillance is on the rise, and it has little to do with terrorism.  The failed war on drugs continues to be the main excuse for assaults on privacy:
State and federal investigators obtained 3,194 wiretap orders in 2010, an increase of 34 percent over the previous year, and a whopping 168 percent increase over 2000. Only one wiretap application was denied—which you can choose to take as evidence that law enforcement is extremely scrupulous in seeking applications, or that judges tend to rubber stamp them, according to your preferred level of paranoia. Just half the states reported any wiretaps, and nearly 68 percent of the total 1,987 state wiretaps were attributable to just three states: California, New York and New Jersey….
Still, this invasive technique is still reserved for investigating the most serious violent crimes, right? Alas, no: For 84 percent of wiretap applications (2,675 wiretaps), the most serious offense under investigation involved illegal drugs. Further proof, if proof were needed, that privacy suffers enormous collateral damage in our failed drug war. Drugs have long been the reason for the vast majority of wiretaps, but that trend, too, is on the upswing: Drug cases accounted for “just” 75 percent of intercept orders in 2000.

Not Learning Our Lessons

The last financial crisis isn't over, but we might as well start getting ready for the next one. Sorry to be gloomy, but there it is. Why? Here are 10 reasons.
1. We are learning the wrong lessons from the last one.
2. No one has been punished.
3. The incentives remain crooked.
4. The referees are corrupt.
5. Stocks are skyrocketing again.
6. The derivatives time bomb is bigger than ever - and ticking away.
7. The ancient regime is in the saddle.
8. Ben Bernanke doesn't understand his job.
9. We are levering up like crazy.
10. The real economy remains in the tank.
You know what George Santayana said about people who forget the past. But we're even dumber than that. We are doomed to repeat the past not because we have forgotten it but because we never learned the lessons to begin with.

Friday, July 1, 2011

Happy 4TH Of July Sound Of Cannons Readers!



Well, well.  Another 4th of July weekend falls upon us here at Sound Of Cannons Towers East.  Fireworks are in the car, the steaks have been in the freezer and the liquor store gets shook down on Friday afternoon.  We'd like to celebrate the Independence of this Once Great Country, but increasingly it seems so out of place.  People begging for free rides with their mortgages, food stamps at record levels, hysterical screaming for free healthcare.  This isn't Our Founding Father's America. Those guys sacrificed everything for the chance of economic freedom, and we've basically shit it away in the hopes of having a government take care of us from cradle to grave.  Shame on us, fellow Americans, shame on us.  If you read this blog, you're probably in the minority of people who think freedom is actually a good thing.  Maybe just maybe, a minority of people can get this country back on track and headed towards the ideals of the greatness our Founding Fathers fought so hard to give us.
Happy 4th Of July loyal Sound Of Cannons readers. Please drive safely and watch out for the other chuckleheads on the road this weekend.   Enjoy the BBQ, drinks and potato salad.  Light some sparklers and go to your town's fireworks spectacular.  Please, please hug your kids and tell them you love them.  Tell your folks and grandparents you love and respect them.  Help'em out if they need something done around the house or provide transportation to a fireworks display if they want to see it.  In the coming Dark Economic Times, family will become even more important.
Stock up on what you need for future disruptions and pray for any good that can come of this horrid mess. 
We're just on the outer rim of the real trouble ahead; get yourself mentally, financially, physically and spiritually ready.