Monday, July 2, 2007

Iran, Out Of Oil? Maybe.................soon


At the current rate, Iran will run out of oil in the next 10-15 years. But Iran’s problem doesn’t have anything to do with Peak Oil. Rather, it’s the knuckleheads who run the government.
This one, for example: "If the government does not control the consumption of oil products in Iran,” says Iran’s oil minister, Mohammed Hadi Nejad-Hosseinian, “and at the same time, if the projects for increasing the capacity of the oil and protection of the oil wells will not happen, within 10 years, there will not be any oil for export." "Absent some change in Irani policy,” explains Roger Stern from Johns Hopkins University, just down the street here in Baltimore, “exports will decline to zero by 2014-2015. Energy subsidies, hostility to foreign investment and inefficiencies of its state-planned economy underlie Iran's problem.”
“I expect Iran to be the new friend of the U.S. sometime next decade,” writes Mauldin, “as the regime is not popular and the country is growing younger. I thought that the impetus would be the lack of freedom and knowledge of how the world is better off coming from the Internet, but it turns out that it may be a desire for more freedom combined with economic problems which help bring about regime change, much as in Russia last century.”

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