Monday, June 23, 2008

This Recession Ain't Gonna End Early................


“To expect [to come] out of the recession by the end of the year, I find that inconceivable,” George Soros told The Wall Street Journal over the weekend. Still promoting his latest book, Soros told the rag what he expects of the U.S. once this “superbubble” has popped.
“I think that the decline in housing prices is going to be more precipitous and go further than people currently expect…I can envisage a very broad range of scenarios. One would be a very prolonged worldwide recession. I cannot imagine a replay of the '30s. But you can have a muddle-through replay of the Japanese scenario, 10 years of stagnation.”
The credit crisis will not peak until the first quarter of 2009, predicted Goldman Sachs last week. According to the latest forecast from the world’s biggest investment bank, financials around the world will need to raise an additional $65 billion by this time next year to cope with losses.
Financials have raised an estimated $120 billion in emergency funding in the past three quarters. Using Goldman’s forecast as a guide… that would put us around two-thirds of the way through this mess.
Goldman also downgraded price targets for 14 financials and lowered its own 2008 earnings forecast.

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