The Coming Boom in Australian Resource Stocks
by Dan Denning, Editor, Australia Mining and Resource Report
It takes nearly five hours by plane to get from my new hometown of Melbourne, Australia, to the Timor Sea, the body of water that lies off Australia's northwest coast.
I've made the trip several times now on my way to Singapore and other destinations in Asia, Europe and Africa.
Out the plane window, it looks like a lot of nothing. But all that space you fly over between Melbourne and the northwest coast... now that's what today's investor needs to know about.
In America, some people jokingly call it "flyover country," as if everything between New York and Los Angeles was just an afterthought.
America's so-called "flyover country" is home to rich corn and wheat fields, the massive coal deposits in Wyoming, the remnants of the Mesabi iron range in Minnesota, and of course, what's left of the producing oil and gas fields in Texas and Oklahoma.
Australia's "flyover country" today is on the verge of the same kind of boom that took hold in America 100 years ago. You see, Australia is home to nearly all the valuable mineral and metal deposits needed for the industrialization of China and India.
How much mineral wealth is buried in the Outback?
Australia ranks No. 1 globally in economically demonstrated resources (EDR) of zinc, nickel, lead, thorium, tantalum and mineral sands (rutile and zircon). It ranks in the top six EDR for bauxite, black coal, brown coal, copper, gold, iron ore, manganese ore, niobium, silver and uranium. The Olympic Dam Mine (in South Australia) is home to nearly 476,000 tons of uranium -- 18% of the world's known reserves.
Let me be clear, though. It's not just what Australia is capable of producing that excites me so much. It's what the country is already producing. Amid rising commodity prices, resource producers in Australia are benefiting right now from the scorching supply/demand dynamic.
Export earnings from Australian commodities should rise by 30% in 2008, thanks to demand for iron ore, coking coals, gold and crude oil. And Australia is the world's largest shipper of coal, iron ore and wool.
As an investor, you must pay attention to two factors at work here. First, many small and unknown (at least in the U.S.) Aussie companies are sitting on assets that are rising in value. That alone is extremely bullish.
The second factor is that the companies that own the assets and can produce them will almost surely report massive earnings growth in the last three quarters of 2008. The stocks of these producers -- based on our analysis -- don't fully reflect that earnings growth.
It's clear that the bull market in resources is alive and well. I see three main factors driving this bull market. The first, as you probably know, is that commodities are coming off a low base. The bear market in commodities lasted 20 years. The second reason is supply has still not caught up with demand. A decade of low commodity prices resulted in chronic under-investment in new productive capacity. The third factor is what makes this resource cycle different from the rest -- it's the strength of new demand from China.
How can you participate in this opportunity in Australia's resource stocks?
Of course, you can buy the big institutional favorites, like BHP Billiton (BHP). But I think the really huge money will be made here by owning junior miners and mining infrastructure stocks.
The iron ore juniors and coal companies aren't hated, but they are even better... unknown!
The nice thing about the resource sector here is that there are far more stocks than analysts. With all the underlying resource prices in an uptrend, it's just a question of who's willing to do more homework to find small companies with economic resource assets.
It takes nearly five hours by plane to get from my new hometown of Melbourne, Australia, to the Timor Sea, the body of water that lies off Australia's northwest coast.
I've made the trip several times now on my way to Singapore and other destinations in Asia, Europe and Africa.
Out the plane window, it looks like a lot of nothing. But all that space you fly over between Melbourne and the northwest coast... now that's what today's investor needs to know about.
In America, some people jokingly call it "flyover country," as if everything between New York and Los Angeles was just an afterthought.
America's so-called "flyover country" is home to rich corn and wheat fields, the massive coal deposits in Wyoming, the remnants of the Mesabi iron range in Minnesota, and of course, what's left of the producing oil and gas fields in Texas and Oklahoma.
Australia's "flyover country" today is on the verge of the same kind of boom that took hold in America 100 years ago. You see, Australia is home to nearly all the valuable mineral and metal deposits needed for the industrialization of China and India.
How much mineral wealth is buried in the Outback?
Australia ranks No. 1 globally in economically demonstrated resources (EDR) of zinc, nickel, lead, thorium, tantalum and mineral sands (rutile and zircon). It ranks in the top six EDR for bauxite, black coal, brown coal, copper, gold, iron ore, manganese ore, niobium, silver and uranium. The Olympic Dam Mine (in South Australia) is home to nearly 476,000 tons of uranium -- 18% of the world's known reserves.
Let me be clear, though. It's not just what Australia is capable of producing that excites me so much. It's what the country is already producing. Amid rising commodity prices, resource producers in Australia are benefiting right now from the scorching supply/demand dynamic.
Export earnings from Australian commodities should rise by 30% in 2008, thanks to demand for iron ore, coking coals, gold and crude oil. And Australia is the world's largest shipper of coal, iron ore and wool.
As an investor, you must pay attention to two factors at work here. First, many small and unknown (at least in the U.S.) Aussie companies are sitting on assets that are rising in value. That alone is extremely bullish.
The second factor is that the companies that own the assets and can produce them will almost surely report massive earnings growth in the last three quarters of 2008. The stocks of these producers -- based on our analysis -- don't fully reflect that earnings growth.
It's clear that the bull market in resources is alive and well. I see three main factors driving this bull market. The first, as you probably know, is that commodities are coming off a low base. The bear market in commodities lasted 20 years. The second reason is supply has still not caught up with demand. A decade of low commodity prices resulted in chronic under-investment in new productive capacity. The third factor is what makes this resource cycle different from the rest -- it's the strength of new demand from China.
How can you participate in this opportunity in Australia's resource stocks?
Of course, you can buy the big institutional favorites, like BHP Billiton (BHP). But I think the really huge money will be made here by owning junior miners and mining infrastructure stocks.
The iron ore juniors and coal companies aren't hated, but they are even better... unknown!
The nice thing about the resource sector here is that there are far more stocks than analysts. With all the underlying resource prices in an uptrend, it's just a question of who's willing to do more homework to find small companies with economic resource assets.
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