History Suggests More Pain Lies Ahead for Investors
Is it time to start buying stocks again? According to Ned Davis Research, the average bear market since 1960 has lasted about 14 months. It’s also resulted in an average 31% decline for U.S. stocks before a bottom finally formed. During the mildest bear market in 1990, the Dow still declined 21%. The worst bear market resulted in a 45% plunge from 1973 to 1974.Unlike the last bear market from 2000 – 2002, the sub-prime credit crisis triggered this bear market. Or in other words, the real estate market busted - compounded by soaring energy and food prices. The last bear, a first-class tech-wreck, ended in October 2002. During that bear market, the S&P 500 Index crashed a cumulative 41% and the Dow a dizzying 38%. The good news is that bull markets or big rallies follow bear markets. Those bull markets usually result in significant double-digit gains for investors. But the key is to avoid losing money in the meantime. You don’t want to get smashed during a bear market so another investor can recover quickly and begin raking in the profits once the primary trend changes.From its peak last October, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index have now declined a cumulative 19% heading into today’s trading. If history is correct, this suggests that stocks still have another 12% or so of losses ahead before forming a bottom. That means more pain lies ahead for investors in stocks. But there is light at the end of this dark tunnel. I’m finding a plethora of bargains worldwide right now. That includes big dividend-paying stocks that trade at a multi-year low. Many other large-caps trade at similar levels. This bear market will end - eventually. The first step to the next bull market is sharply lower oil prices. Until energy prices retreat, stocks will continue to suffer losses.
Is it time to start buying stocks again? According to Ned Davis Research, the average bear market since 1960 has lasted about 14 months. It’s also resulted in an average 31% decline for U.S. stocks before a bottom finally formed. During the mildest bear market in 1990, the Dow still declined 21%. The worst bear market resulted in a 45% plunge from 1973 to 1974.Unlike the last bear market from 2000 – 2002, the sub-prime credit crisis triggered this bear market. Or in other words, the real estate market busted - compounded by soaring energy and food prices. The last bear, a first-class tech-wreck, ended in October 2002. During that bear market, the S&P 500 Index crashed a cumulative 41% and the Dow a dizzying 38%. The good news is that bull markets or big rallies follow bear markets. Those bull markets usually result in significant double-digit gains for investors. But the key is to avoid losing money in the meantime. You don’t want to get smashed during a bear market so another investor can recover quickly and begin raking in the profits once the primary trend changes.From its peak last October, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index have now declined a cumulative 19% heading into today’s trading. If history is correct, this suggests that stocks still have another 12% or so of losses ahead before forming a bottom. That means more pain lies ahead for investors in stocks. But there is light at the end of this dark tunnel. I’m finding a plethora of bargains worldwide right now. That includes big dividend-paying stocks that trade at a multi-year low. Many other large-caps trade at similar levels. This bear market will end - eventually. The first step to the next bull market is sharply lower oil prices. Until energy prices retreat, stocks will continue to suffer losses.
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