The global financial crisis is only 25% complete, says a recent study by one of the world’s biggest hedge funds. A study by Bridgewater Associates estimates that total credit crisis losses will amount to $1.6 trillion worldwide… a far cry from the nearly $400 billion lost already.
The fund’s call was based in a particularly simple reality… bean counters at Bridgewater estimate financials handle around $26.6 trillion in debt-based assets. If such assets were valued at today’s market rates, around $1.6 trillion would be instantly lost. Et voila… Bridgewater thinks we’re only a quarter of the way through.
Thus, we’ll tack another prediction onto our “write-down rundown.” This thing is starting to look pretty ugly.
“We could see a capitulation bottom in the market very soon,” predicts Dan Amoss. We’ve yet to see that “turn off the computer and hide under the covers” sort of sell-off. According to Dan, it might be around the corner.
“The market action last week was a continuation of the past months’ decline… with one surprise: Only the financial stocks weren’t punished, for a change. The leading gainers in the market thus far in 2008 -- in the steel, coal and fertilizer sectors -- fell extremely hard.
“Too many hedge funds are operating with too much leverage. When these hedge funds receive redemption requests -- as many are -- they’re forced to sell winning long positions and buy to cover winning short positions to raise cash. Last Wednesday was one of those days. “At certain times, rational decision-making takes a back seat to emotion. That’s where we are today. The health of the banking system is still weak, and now we’re seeing waves of funds exiting winning positions… we could see a capitulation bottom in the market very soon.”
Proof the financial system is still suffering… global mergers and acquisitions are down $850 billion compared to last year. According to a recent Bloomberg bit, deal volume fell 36% in the first half, compared to 2007. “Only” 14,210 deals were announced around the world, at a value of $1.5 trillion… seems like a lot, but it’s actually the worst half since 2005.
The fund’s call was based in a particularly simple reality… bean counters at Bridgewater estimate financials handle around $26.6 trillion in debt-based assets. If such assets were valued at today’s market rates, around $1.6 trillion would be instantly lost. Et voila… Bridgewater thinks we’re only a quarter of the way through.
Thus, we’ll tack another prediction onto our “write-down rundown.” This thing is starting to look pretty ugly.
“We could see a capitulation bottom in the market very soon,” predicts Dan Amoss. We’ve yet to see that “turn off the computer and hide under the covers” sort of sell-off. According to Dan, it might be around the corner.
“The market action last week was a continuation of the past months’ decline… with one surprise: Only the financial stocks weren’t punished, for a change. The leading gainers in the market thus far in 2008 -- in the steel, coal and fertilizer sectors -- fell extremely hard.
“Too many hedge funds are operating with too much leverage. When these hedge funds receive redemption requests -- as many are -- they’re forced to sell winning long positions and buy to cover winning short positions to raise cash. Last Wednesday was one of those days. “At certain times, rational decision-making takes a back seat to emotion. That’s where we are today. The health of the banking system is still weak, and now we’re seeing waves of funds exiting winning positions… we could see a capitulation bottom in the market very soon.”
Proof the financial system is still suffering… global mergers and acquisitions are down $850 billion compared to last year. According to a recent Bloomberg bit, deal volume fell 36% in the first half, compared to 2007. “Only” 14,210 deals were announced around the world, at a value of $1.5 trillion… seems like a lot, but it’s actually the worst half since 2005.
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