One can listen to Eurocrats promising the moon and the stars, and that the EURO.PK will survive come hell or high water, or one can trade the probability of the Eurozone’s breakup based on reality. For those who opt for the latter, they should head over to Intrade where the contract pricing the possibility of “Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” is now trading at perfectly even odds or 50%. In other words, the “upside benefit” of the EFSF, the ECB, the IMF and ultimately the Fed have been reduced to coin toss odds. Naturally, if there is a break up in the Eurozone the fallout will be massive and will likely lead to a far worse outcome than the freezing of money markets in the aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy. In other words, the odds of capitalism surviving for just over a year form now are exactly fifty/fifty.