Friday, February 12, 2010

Dr. Faber Has a Diagnosis on The World's Economy

Marc Faber sees 'no huge downside risk for gold,' more sovereign defaults

Marc Faber the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor said the governments of every developed economy will eventually default on their sovereign debts, so the one thing he will never do in his life is 'sell my gold.'
Potential defaulter include the US, the UK and Western Europe.
Speaking to CNBC in a live interview via telephone, Faber said: "In the developed world we have huge debt to GDP, in terms of government debt to GDP and unfunded liabilities that will come due."
"These unfunded liabilities are so huge that eventually these governments will all have to print money before they default," he added.
Speaking at Russia's Troika Dialog Forum in Moscow last week, Faber said: "I'm convinced the US government will go bankrupt, but not tomorrow, and before they do they will print money [and] you'll get a depression with very high inflation rates."
"If you ask me about the correction in the gold market, sure, we already corrected 10% from the peak and it could last somewhat longer.
"But when I look at Mr.Obama, Mr.Bernanke, Mr. Tim Geithner and Mr. Larry Summers, the one thing I will never do in my life is sell my gold."
In an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong on Thursday, Faber reiterated he doesn t see a huge downside risk for gold.
I won t rule out that gold will go down to US$950 or US$1,000, but I don t expect more downside."
I don t see any scenario where gold will collapse," he added.
The famed investor told Bloomberg the euro may rebound to US$1.40 against the US dollar because the currency is currently oversold amid concerns over Greece s deficit, the largest in the European Union.
The region, along with the European Central Bank, will probably bail out the country, in turn creating more deficits, he also said.
When Greece is bailed out, it s a further indication that paper money is losing its purchasing power because it s diluted through larger and larger bailouts and more and more deficits, Faber said. Now it can rebound to around US$1.40 but more than that, you shouldn t expect.
Any other recommendations?
Other commodities haven t gone up yet, such as the grains, he said. It may take time until they start to go up substantially but if you have time, you should be long wheat, corn, soya beans or own a farm, which is one way to participate in future food price increases.
The global stock markets, which have mostly fallen about 10%-20% from their peaks, have begun a correction phase that Faber expects to continue.
He said he thinks the new resistance level for the S&P 500 will be 1,100, though an oversold market could cause a relief rally over the next ten days.
Faber has said in many interviews that he sees dips in gold as an opportunity to buy some more bullion. But how long can the gold bull market last?
"The gold bull market will come to an end when sovereign wealth funds sick and tired of their investments in financial stocks will finally purchase gold," wrote Faber back in January 2008 in his Gloom, Boom & Doom report.

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