Friday, March 19, 2010

A Letter From One Of Our More Intelligent Readers:

You know, I periodically try to step outside of my daily mindset to assess whether I'm just a stubborn, misled, dumbass who keeps carping about how bad things are, how great they used to be, what trouble we're in, yada, yada, yada like some old guy you remember talking about the 1940's when you were a kid. Maybe I am. If that's the case, so be it. But I can't help but believe that we are being scammed in a major way and that there is still a good chance we see the world economy crash and burn (timescale uncertain).

Treasuries: I recently heard Peter Schiff say on CNBC when asked about those who were selling foreign currencies and buying US Dollars as a flight to safety, that it was like jumping out of the Lusitania and into the Titanic. I see the flight to safety of US treasuries the same way. Treasuries are considered safe because the gov't can tax us whenever they need more money to pay debt holders. If there is a tax revolt or the debt to GDP ratio gets high enough they won't be considered safe anymore. My gut tells me the Fed is doing a lot of the buying at these auctions (as a number of the posters under the article are also aware), and I wouldn't be surprised if they also have an arrangement with some foreign central banks to do the same to keep the illusion up.

Stocks: Market action has felt eerie to me for a while. Very small day-to-day changes on very light volume. No 10% corrections since the lows one year ago. Very strange.

Politics: Lose/Lose situation (short-term) with the healthcare bill fiasco. If they can't pass anything I expect Obama & Dems to seek vengence through all kind of sneeky, unconstitutional new laws, deals, government intervention and general BS. If it goes through in some form, I believe you will see a groundswell of protest rise up that will make tea party protests to date look small. I could see a tax revolt movement gaining some momentum in this scenario. If the revolt gains enough steam, if could get big enough to throw out most of the bill's supporters in November and put us on a better track. Maybe some or all of the bill could even be tossed after the elections (I realize the difficulty and poor track record of this kind of action).

When 1-2 ounces of gold can buy the DJ 30 and S&P 500 dividends rise to levels comparable to past major market bottoms, then I'll be more bullish on stocks. When house prices become affordable to average annual household incomes with 20% down, I'll be more bullish on real estate. In the meantime, I'm still expecting to see some major action in the markets and some historical events unfolding on my TV.

No comments: