Thursday, February 10, 2011

Good News Is Obama Might Lose in 2012, The Bad News Is Romney Might Win

Americans Think Obama Would Lose In 2012
More than half of registered voters believe President Obama will lose a bid for a second term, even as more Americans say they approve of his job performance than at any time in more than a year.
A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, released Tuesday, shows 51 percent of registered voters, and the same percentage of adult Americans, believe Obama will lose if he runs for re-election. 46 percent say he would win.
And more voters say, at the moment, they will vote against Obama. Fully 51 percent say they definitely or probably will not vote for Obama, while 47 percent say they're predisposed to vote for him. Independent voters would vote against Obama by a 44 percent to 53 percent margin, while he would win moderates by a much larger 55 percent to 45 percent margin.
The numbers come in the same poll that showed Obama gaining from a big positive bump. The sample of all adults approve of the job Obama is doing by a 55 percent to 44 percent margin, the highest Obama's approval rating has gone since a poll conducted November 13-15, 2009.
And yet Obama shouldn't worry too much. Early decisions about how a voter will cast a ballot haven't proven to be terribly good indicators of a candidate's performance in the following elections. A similar CNN survey from January 1995 found 54 percent of Americans saying they would vote against Bill Clinton, while just 39 percent would vote for him. Fully 65 percent said they believed Clinton would lose re-election. Clinton easily won his re-election bid in 1996.
The poll, conducted January 21-23 among 1,012 adults, comes with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. Subsamples of 479 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and 441 Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents have a higher margin of error, around 4.5 percent each.
The survey also tested the Republican presidential primary field, a group so disparate and wide open that more than half of Republican primary voters have never heard of some of the leading candidates. More than 59 percent of voters say they have never heard of, or have no opinion of, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former Sen. Rick Santorum, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Rep. Mike Pence and Sen. John Thune.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee leads the pack in name recognition with a 72 percent favorable rating. He's closely trailed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who is seen favorably by 70 percent of Republicans, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has a 64 percent approval rating.

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