Monday, April 21, 2008

Inflation Rears It's Ugly Head Higher

Inflation of the Third Kind
"My God! This is all inflation news that is beyond terrible, but it seems so much less than that after the 73% rate of crude goods! But the reality is that we're freaking doomed, whether it seems like it or not!"
by The Mogambo Guru
The Big, Bad News (BBN) for me is that the price of food is going up in a general inflation around the world, by which is meant that the staggering amount of money and crushing debts that moronic governments have allowed their central banks to create has, as it must, finally turned into inflation in prices of commodities instead of always turning into inflation in asset prices.
Bill Bonner at The Daily Reckoning writes, "To show you the scope of the phenomenon, we pull out a copy of The New York Times from October 19th, 1896. There, it is recorded in black and white that the average wheat price was about $1 a bushel - in gold - during the previous 20 years. An ounce of gold would buy you 20 bushels of wheat. Today, you can buy a bushel of wheat for about $12 which means, an ounce of gold will buy about 75 bushels of wheat."
The upshot of this is that "In terms of real money - gold - the price of wheat has gone down for more than 100 years. However fast farmers have added to the world's wheat output, in other words, central banks have outdone them, planting far more acreage in paper money."
And it is not just food where prices run amok, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods increased 1.1 percent in March, which is (I guess) supposed to be somehow even minimally mitigating to my horror and sense of impending doom because the result is "seasonally adjusted."
And lest you think this is some aberration, the index also rose 0.3% in February and 1.0% in January. Yikes! That's Inflation of the Third Kind, which is how I both make a point that inflation is tangible and also how I cleverly introduce my new Mogambo Mega Movie (MMM) production, Inflation of the Third Kind, which is pretty much a rip-off of the movie of a similar name, except that only cute cheerleaders in borderline scandalous, scanty outfits "hear the call" and converge at a mesa in the Old West, where they are the only ones who are spared when a spaceship full of inflation monsters suddenly appears, and the inflation monsters pour out of the spaceship and eat everybody EXCEPT the cute cheerleaders and those people who are smart enough to buy gold, and there is this big party at the end where all the smart people are eating like gluttonous pigs and talking about how nice it is not to have been eaten by inflation monsters, and generally having a wonderful time while all the cheerleaders are cheering about gold (e.g. "Two, four, six, eight. Gold saving your financial butt is really great!"), and I think I can clean it up with some skilful editing to escape an "XXX" rating, so it will be fun for the entire family!
And you will be looking for some fun when I tell you that even worse, prices received by producers of intermediate goods rose 2.3% in March.
And if you want something to color your nightmares with hues of blood and bile, the Crude Goods Index advanced 8.0% in March! In fact, later on in the report we learn that "prices for crude goods surged at a 73.4-percent seasonally-adjusted annual rate for the 3 months ended in March after jumping at a 67.7-percent SAAR for the 3 months ended in December." At this news I am gagging on my tongue in sheer terror! Gaaaahhh!
It is almost a relief to learn that "during the first quarter of 2008, the finished goods index rose at a 10.2-percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), after climbing at an 11.5-percent SAAR during the fourth quarter of 2007." My God! This is all inflation news that is beyond terrible, but it seems so much less than that after the 73% rate of crude goods! But the reality is that we're freaking doomed, whether it seems like it or not!
The prices for finished energy goods rose a blistering 22.5% SAAR for the quarter that ended in March, and the index rose a mind-boggling 44.1-percent SAAR for previous quarter! The mind reels!
And speaking of energy, at the same time as oil popped over a new record of $113 per barrel, we get the news from The Financial Times that "Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels, one of the country's top energy executives has warned, fuelling concerns that the world's biggest oil producers cannot keep up with rampant Asian demand."
Those of you familiar with the old supply/demand dynamic can easily plug in rising demand and falling supply to forecast higher prices; and those of you who cannot will merely pay them. Hahahaha! I made a joke!
"The Russian government has so far admitted that production growth has stagnated", but is trying to keep "expectations anchored" (as seems to be all the rage with central bankers these days), and "has shied away from admitting that post-Soviet output has peaked."
Either way, diminished supply against rising demand means higher prices for oil!
Which brings up just one more reason to buy silver, gold and oil, as if you needed one more reason, on top of the other tonnes of reasons, to buy them, but there you are!

No comments: